This week's lesson is that fancying the smaller teams despite their generous start on the coupon is NOT the way to go.
Only Catalans (who I always thought might sneak it) and Bradford were winners. Your £7 stake on those results would have given you a return of £3.80 (that is, a loss of £3.20). The doubles thing failed too as £3.60 return on £21 bets is the sort of form that bankrupts you over a season. Still, there's always next week.
HANDICAP SEASON RUNNING TOTAL:
MATCHES: 26
CORRECT PICKS: 12
Running £1 per pick total = -£3.01
Best Week - Week 1 - 6 out of 7 right
Worst Week - Week 2 - 0 out of 6 right
Updates of my (usually failed) bets on the Super League competition and random opinions when I feel I have something to say.
Sunday, 26 February 2012
Thursday, 23 February 2012
SUPER LEAGUE WEEK 4
We've gone all, nothing and then over half so far...what will this week bring?
FRIDAY
Salford Vs Hull FC - Hull FC (-6.0) @ 5/6
St Helens Vs Catalans - Catalans Dragons (+10.0) @ 10/11
SATURDAY
Wakefield Vs Bradford - Bradford (+2.0) @ 10/11
SUNDAY
London Vs Huddersfield - London Broncos (+10.0) @ 10/11
Widnes Vs Leeds - Widnes (+26.0) @ 11/10
Warrington Vs Hull KR - Hull KR (+20.0) @ 10/11
Castleford Vs Wigan - Castleford (+14.0) @ 10/11
Despite what happened in week 2 I'm showing faith in Widnes and Hull KR to just about beat the handicap in terms of the strong starts they've been given. Not too sure about London but I backed them as season dark horses so why stop now? I fancy Catalans to do well at Saints and Cas always give Wigan a hard game.
I've backed a Sevenfold for all the results, and as this week's fall-back backed all the double combinations (21 bets).
FRIDAY
Salford Vs Hull FC - Hull FC (-6.0) @ 5/6
St Helens Vs Catalans - Catalans Dragons (+10.0) @ 10/11
SATURDAY
Wakefield Vs Bradford - Bradford (+2.0) @ 10/11
SUNDAY
London Vs Huddersfield - London Broncos (+10.0) @ 10/11
Widnes Vs Leeds - Widnes (+26.0) @ 11/10
Warrington Vs Hull KR - Hull KR (+20.0) @ 10/11
Castleford Vs Wigan - Castleford (+14.0) @ 10/11
Despite what happened in week 2 I'm showing faith in Widnes and Hull KR to just about beat the handicap in terms of the strong starts they've been given. Not too sure about London but I backed them as season dark horses so why stop now? I fancy Catalans to do well at Saints and Cas always give Wigan a hard game.
I've backed a Sevenfold for all the results, and as this week's fall-back backed all the double combinations (21 bets).
Tuesday, 21 February 2012
Week Three Results
Ok so a little bit better this week, and some profit! Four out of the six went the right way last week with only Widnes (+8) and St. Helens (-10) letting me down. It was stupid of me to back Widnes (although in my defence I didn't think they'd win but I thought they'd run Salford close) and Saints apparently never do well at Hull KR. Pity my Saints-supporting work colleague waited until after the game to tell me that.
A £1 bet on each of the six choices would have netted you a return of £7.64 for your £6 stake. Big money I know. Covering each treble with a £1 bet per treble would have netted you around £28 for your stake of £20 (from six results there are 20 possible trebles so £1 x 20 and with four results coming in you would have four winning trebles). Again not great winnings I suppose, but that's the handicap coupon for you anyway.
A £1 bet on each of the six choices would have netted you a return of £7.64 for your £6 stake. Big money I know. Covering each treble with a £1 bet per treble would have netted you around £28 for your stake of £20 (from six results there are 20 possible trebles so £1 x 20 and with four results coming in you would have four winning trebles). Again not great winnings I suppose, but that's the handicap coupon for you anyway.
Friday, 17 February 2012
SUPER LEAGUE WEEK THREE
I'm avoiding the World Club Challenge (but hoping for a Manly win - they always have been "my" NRL team) and just concentrating on the six super league games. Hopefully I won't do as badly as last week! And I did say I wasn't sure on a lot of last weeks games...
SATURDAY
Huddersfield Vs Warrington - Warrington (-6.0) @ 10/11
Catalans Vs Castleford - Castleford (+16.0) @ 10/11
SUNDAY
Bradford Vs Wigan - Wigan (-12.0) @ 10/11
Hull Kr Vs St Helens - St Helens (-10.0) @ 8/11
Widnes Vs Salford - Widnes (+8.0) @ 10/11
Hull FC Vs London - London Broncos (+14.0) @ 10/11
I've had a six-fold on this, plus a series of 20 bets covering all trebles. Here goes nothing.
SATURDAY
Huddersfield Vs Warrington - Warrington (-6.0) @ 10/11
Catalans Vs Castleford - Castleford (+16.0) @ 10/11
SUNDAY
Bradford Vs Wigan - Wigan (-12.0) @ 10/11
Hull Kr Vs St Helens - St Helens (-10.0) @ 8/11
Widnes Vs Salford - Widnes (+8.0) @ 10/11
Hull FC Vs London - London Broncos (+14.0) @ 10/11
I've had a six-fold on this, plus a series of 20 bets covering all trebles. Here goes nothing.
Tuesday, 14 February 2012
WEEK TWO RESULTS
Ok, so the least said about Week 2 the better. None right. At least the Catalans game was called off so I can pretend there wasn't a clean sweep...
Let's just move on.
COUPON SEASON RUNNING TOTAL:
MATCHES: 13
CORRECT HANDICAP PICKS: 6
Best Week - Week 1 - 6 out of 7 right
Worst Week - Week 2 - 0 out of 6 right
Let's just move on.
COUPON SEASON RUNNING TOTAL:
MATCHES: 13
CORRECT HANDICAP PICKS: 6
Best Week - Week 1 - 6 out of 7 right
Worst Week - Week 2 - 0 out of 6 right
Thursday, 9 February 2012
SUPER LEAGUE WEEK TWO
Wowzers. After what I thought was a reasonably straightforward coupon on Week 1 I am not liking this week's at all. But the bookies don't like losing money do they so we just have to play with what we get. I'll be amazed if I get anywhere near the 6 out of 7 I managed in week one.
Week Two Bets (all odds William Hill)
FRIDAY
St Helens Vs Salford - Salford (+22.0) @ 10/11
SATURDAY
Catalans Vs Hull FC - Catalans Dragons (-8.0) @ 10/11
Wigan Vs Leeds - Leeds (+6.0) @ 4/5
SUNDAY
Huddersfield Vs Widnes - Widnes (+20.0) @ 10/11
Warrington Vs London - London Broncos (+20.0) @ 10/11
Castleford Vs Bradford - Castleford (-6.0) @ 4/5
Wakefield Vs Hull KR - Wakefield (scr) @ 10/11
The big "gamble" is that lower teams in the form of Salford, Widnes and London all beat what are high handicaps So in a change of pace this week I've done my usual sevenfold accumulator bet (all seven results must come in to make me any money) and as well I've added a treble cover. This means that I've covered every possible treble out of those seven picks (a total of 35 bets) meaning that if at least three bets come in I will "win" something (but nowhere near my total stake) and if any more than three come in there will be multiple wins. I suspect that may be a one-off bet never to be repeated as I don't see me winning much unless five or more come in!
Week Two Bets (all odds William Hill)
FRIDAY
St Helens Vs Salford - Salford (+22.0) @ 10/11
SATURDAY
Catalans Vs Hull FC - Catalans Dragons (-8.0) @ 10/11
Wigan Vs Leeds - Leeds (+6.0) @ 4/5
SUNDAY
Huddersfield Vs Widnes - Widnes (+20.0) @ 10/11
Warrington Vs London - London Broncos (+20.0) @ 10/11
Castleford Vs Bradford - Castleford (-6.0) @ 4/5
Wakefield Vs Hull KR - Wakefield (scr) @ 10/11
The big "gamble" is that lower teams in the form of Salford, Widnes and London all beat what are high handicaps So in a change of pace this week I've done my usual sevenfold accumulator bet (all seven results must come in to make me any money) and as well I've added a treble cover. This means that I've covered every possible treble out of those seven picks (a total of 35 bets) meaning that if at least three bets come in I will "win" something (but nowhere near my total stake) and if any more than three come in there will be multiple wins. I suspect that may be a one-off bet never to be repeated as I don't see me winning much unless five or more come in!
Sunday, 5 February 2012
Week One Coupon Results
Alas, it wasn't good enough in the end, but six out of seven correct predictions on the handicap coupon wasn't a bad start. It's probably as good as you are going to get to be honest!
The only match I got wrong was Hull-Warrington, as a draw meant that Hull took the handicap on an 8 point start whereas I had backed the Wires. As it happens that would have been one of my more "fancied" choices at the start of the weekend but was the one that did me in. The other close one was London, who just sneaked in for those that backed them with a 12 point start.
As I suspected they might the Catalans made William Hill's offer of them with a two point start look very wrong indeed and even with their injury problems I fancied Huddersfield to at least defend twelve points start against Wigan, which they did.
So this week if you'd backed each of my handicap tips with a £1 bet, your stake of £7 would have returned you £11.55 on a series of seven singles bets. More would have come your way if you'd put some combinations on. Me? Well as you know I only lumped one seven fold on so I won bugger all (as well as losing all my individual bets on the Wigan game). Maybe I'll change my tactics next week.
COUPON SEASON RUNNING TOTAL
MATCHES: 7
CORRECT HANDICAP PICKS: 6
The only match I got wrong was Hull-Warrington, as a draw meant that Hull took the handicap on an 8 point start whereas I had backed the Wires. As it happens that would have been one of my more "fancied" choices at the start of the weekend but was the one that did me in. The other close one was London, who just sneaked in for those that backed them with a 12 point start.
As I suspected they might the Catalans made William Hill's offer of them with a two point start look very wrong indeed and even with their injury problems I fancied Huddersfield to at least defend twelve points start against Wigan, which they did.
So this week if you'd backed each of my handicap tips with a £1 bet, your stake of £7 would have returned you £11.55 on a series of seven singles bets. More would have come your way if you'd put some combinations on. Me? Well as you know I only lumped one seven fold on so I won bugger all (as well as losing all my individual bets on the Wigan game). Maybe I'll change my tactics next week.
COUPON SEASON RUNNING TOTAL
MATCHES: 7
CORRECT HANDICAP PICKS: 6
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