This week's lesson is that fancying the smaller teams despite their generous start on the coupon is NOT the way to go.
Only Catalans (who I always thought might sneak it) and Bradford were winners. Your £7 stake on those results would have given you a return of £3.80 (that is, a loss of £3.20). The doubles thing failed too as £3.60 return on £21 bets is the sort of form that bankrupts you over a season. Still, there's always next week.
HANDICAP SEASON RUNNING TOTAL:
MATCHES: 26
CORRECT PICKS: 12
Running £1 per pick total = -£3.01
Best Week - Week 1 - 6 out of 7 right
Worst Week - Week 2 - 0 out of 6 right
Sunday 26 February 2012
Thursday 23 February 2012
SUPER LEAGUE WEEK 4
We've gone all, nothing and then over half so far...what will this week bring?
FRIDAY
Salford Vs Hull FC - Hull FC (-6.0) @ 5/6
St Helens Vs Catalans - Catalans Dragons (+10.0) @ 10/11
SATURDAY
Wakefield Vs Bradford - Bradford (+2.0) @ 10/11
SUNDAY
London Vs Huddersfield - London Broncos (+10.0) @ 10/11
Widnes Vs Leeds - Widnes (+26.0) @ 11/10
Warrington Vs Hull KR - Hull KR (+20.0) @ 10/11
Castleford Vs Wigan - Castleford (+14.0) @ 10/11
Despite what happened in week 2 I'm showing faith in Widnes and Hull KR to just about beat the handicap in terms of the strong starts they've been given. Not too sure about London but I backed them as season dark horses so why stop now? I fancy Catalans to do well at Saints and Cas always give Wigan a hard game.
I've backed a Sevenfold for all the results, and as this week's fall-back backed all the double combinations (21 bets).
FRIDAY
Salford Vs Hull FC - Hull FC (-6.0) @ 5/6
St Helens Vs Catalans - Catalans Dragons (+10.0) @ 10/11
SATURDAY
Wakefield Vs Bradford - Bradford (+2.0) @ 10/11
SUNDAY
London Vs Huddersfield - London Broncos (+10.0) @ 10/11
Widnes Vs Leeds - Widnes (+26.0) @ 11/10
Warrington Vs Hull KR - Hull KR (+20.0) @ 10/11
Castleford Vs Wigan - Castleford (+14.0) @ 10/11
Despite what happened in week 2 I'm showing faith in Widnes and Hull KR to just about beat the handicap in terms of the strong starts they've been given. Not too sure about London but I backed them as season dark horses so why stop now? I fancy Catalans to do well at Saints and Cas always give Wigan a hard game.
I've backed a Sevenfold for all the results, and as this week's fall-back backed all the double combinations (21 bets).
Tuesday 21 February 2012
Week Three Results
Ok so a little bit better this week, and some profit! Four out of the six went the right way last week with only Widnes (+8) and St. Helens (-10) letting me down. It was stupid of me to back Widnes (although in my defence I didn't think they'd win but I thought they'd run Salford close) and Saints apparently never do well at Hull KR. Pity my Saints-supporting work colleague waited until after the game to tell me that.
A £1 bet on each of the six choices would have netted you a return of £7.64 for your £6 stake. Big money I know. Covering each treble with a £1 bet per treble would have netted you around £28 for your stake of £20 (from six results there are 20 possible trebles so £1 x 20 and with four results coming in you would have four winning trebles). Again not great winnings I suppose, but that's the handicap coupon for you anyway.
A £1 bet on each of the six choices would have netted you a return of £7.64 for your £6 stake. Big money I know. Covering each treble with a £1 bet per treble would have netted you around £28 for your stake of £20 (from six results there are 20 possible trebles so £1 x 20 and with four results coming in you would have four winning trebles). Again not great winnings I suppose, but that's the handicap coupon for you anyway.
Friday 17 February 2012
SUPER LEAGUE WEEK THREE
I'm avoiding the World Club Challenge (but hoping for a Manly win - they always have been "my" NRL team) and just concentrating on the six super league games. Hopefully I won't do as badly as last week! And I did say I wasn't sure on a lot of last weeks games...
SATURDAY
Huddersfield Vs Warrington - Warrington (-6.0) @ 10/11
Catalans Vs Castleford - Castleford (+16.0) @ 10/11
SUNDAY
Bradford Vs Wigan - Wigan (-12.0) @ 10/11
Hull Kr Vs St Helens - St Helens (-10.0) @ 8/11
Widnes Vs Salford - Widnes (+8.0) @ 10/11
Hull FC Vs London - London Broncos (+14.0) @ 10/11
I've had a six-fold on this, plus a series of 20 bets covering all trebles. Here goes nothing.
SATURDAY
Huddersfield Vs Warrington - Warrington (-6.0) @ 10/11
Catalans Vs Castleford - Castleford (+16.0) @ 10/11
SUNDAY
Bradford Vs Wigan - Wigan (-12.0) @ 10/11
Hull Kr Vs St Helens - St Helens (-10.0) @ 8/11
Widnes Vs Salford - Widnes (+8.0) @ 10/11
Hull FC Vs London - London Broncos (+14.0) @ 10/11
I've had a six-fold on this, plus a series of 20 bets covering all trebles. Here goes nothing.
Tuesday 14 February 2012
WEEK TWO RESULTS
Ok, so the least said about Week 2 the better. None right. At least the Catalans game was called off so I can pretend there wasn't a clean sweep...
Let's just move on.
COUPON SEASON RUNNING TOTAL:
MATCHES: 13
CORRECT HANDICAP PICKS: 6
Best Week - Week 1 - 6 out of 7 right
Worst Week - Week 2 - 0 out of 6 right
Let's just move on.
COUPON SEASON RUNNING TOTAL:
MATCHES: 13
CORRECT HANDICAP PICKS: 6
Best Week - Week 1 - 6 out of 7 right
Worst Week - Week 2 - 0 out of 6 right
Thursday 9 February 2012
SUPER LEAGUE WEEK TWO
Wowzers. After what I thought was a reasonably straightforward coupon on Week 1 I am not liking this week's at all. But the bookies don't like losing money do they so we just have to play with what we get. I'll be amazed if I get anywhere near the 6 out of 7 I managed in week one.
Week Two Bets (all odds William Hill)
FRIDAY
St Helens Vs Salford - Salford (+22.0) @ 10/11
SATURDAY
Catalans Vs Hull FC - Catalans Dragons (-8.0) @ 10/11
Wigan Vs Leeds - Leeds (+6.0) @ 4/5
SUNDAY
Huddersfield Vs Widnes - Widnes (+20.0) @ 10/11
Warrington Vs London - London Broncos (+20.0) @ 10/11
Castleford Vs Bradford - Castleford (-6.0) @ 4/5
Wakefield Vs Hull KR - Wakefield (scr) @ 10/11
The big "gamble" is that lower teams in the form of Salford, Widnes and London all beat what are high handicaps So in a change of pace this week I've done my usual sevenfold accumulator bet (all seven results must come in to make me any money) and as well I've added a treble cover. This means that I've covered every possible treble out of those seven picks (a total of 35 bets) meaning that if at least three bets come in I will "win" something (but nowhere near my total stake) and if any more than three come in there will be multiple wins. I suspect that may be a one-off bet never to be repeated as I don't see me winning much unless five or more come in!
Week Two Bets (all odds William Hill)
FRIDAY
St Helens Vs Salford - Salford (+22.0) @ 10/11
SATURDAY
Catalans Vs Hull FC - Catalans Dragons (-8.0) @ 10/11
Wigan Vs Leeds - Leeds (+6.0) @ 4/5
SUNDAY
Huddersfield Vs Widnes - Widnes (+20.0) @ 10/11
Warrington Vs London - London Broncos (+20.0) @ 10/11
Castleford Vs Bradford - Castleford (-6.0) @ 4/5
Wakefield Vs Hull KR - Wakefield (scr) @ 10/11
The big "gamble" is that lower teams in the form of Salford, Widnes and London all beat what are high handicaps So in a change of pace this week I've done my usual sevenfold accumulator bet (all seven results must come in to make me any money) and as well I've added a treble cover. This means that I've covered every possible treble out of those seven picks (a total of 35 bets) meaning that if at least three bets come in I will "win" something (but nowhere near my total stake) and if any more than three come in there will be multiple wins. I suspect that may be a one-off bet never to be repeated as I don't see me winning much unless five or more come in!
Sunday 5 February 2012
Week One Coupon Results
Alas, it wasn't good enough in the end, but six out of seven correct predictions on the handicap coupon wasn't a bad start. It's probably as good as you are going to get to be honest!
The only match I got wrong was Hull-Warrington, as a draw meant that Hull took the handicap on an 8 point start whereas I had backed the Wires. As it happens that would have been one of my more "fancied" choices at the start of the weekend but was the one that did me in. The other close one was London, who just sneaked in for those that backed them with a 12 point start.
As I suspected they might the Catalans made William Hill's offer of them with a two point start look very wrong indeed and even with their injury problems I fancied Huddersfield to at least defend twelve points start against Wigan, which they did.
So this week if you'd backed each of my handicap tips with a £1 bet, your stake of £7 would have returned you £11.55 on a series of seven singles bets. More would have come your way if you'd put some combinations on. Me? Well as you know I only lumped one seven fold on so I won bugger all (as well as losing all my individual bets on the Wigan game). Maybe I'll change my tactics next week.
COUPON SEASON RUNNING TOTAL
MATCHES: 7
CORRECT HANDICAP PICKS: 6
The only match I got wrong was Hull-Warrington, as a draw meant that Hull took the handicap on an 8 point start whereas I had backed the Wires. As it happens that would have been one of my more "fancied" choices at the start of the weekend but was the one that did me in. The other close one was London, who just sneaked in for those that backed them with a 12 point start.
As I suspected they might the Catalans made William Hill's offer of them with a two point start look very wrong indeed and even with their injury problems I fancied Huddersfield to at least defend twelve points start against Wigan, which they did.
So this week if you'd backed each of my handicap tips with a £1 bet, your stake of £7 would have returned you £11.55 on a series of seven singles bets. More would have come your way if you'd put some combinations on. Me? Well as you know I only lumped one seven fold on so I won bugger all (as well as losing all my individual bets on the Wigan game). Maybe I'll change my tactics next week.
COUPON SEASON RUNNING TOTAL
MATCHES: 7
CORRECT HANDICAP PICKS: 6
Wigan Vs Huddersfield Bets
First game of the season for the Warriors. Hopefully we'll win, but I think the Giants are a good side even with the number of injuries to the squad and it's still a bit frosty and cold.
BETS:
Wigan win by 6-10 points @ 21/4
Pat Richards 1st try @ 15/2
Josh Charnley 1st try @ 15/2
Sam Tomkins last try @ 7/1
Gareth Hock last try @ 33/1
Here's hoping that the Giant's injury problems don't blow my close game predictions out of the water...
BETS:
Wigan win by 6-10 points @ 21/4
Pat Richards 1st try @ 15/2
Josh Charnley 1st try @ 15/2
Sam Tomkins last try @ 7/1
Gareth Hock last try @ 33/1
Here's hoping that the Giant's injury problems don't blow my close game predictions out of the water...
Saturday 4 February 2012
Sky Games Week 1
I won't moan about the Sky Coverage (other than to say from a visual point of view it's great - it's just the god awful commentary and punditry that offends me) but I will offer up some opinions on what we saw from the first two televised games of the season.
Widnes Vs Wakefield
It seems like the main talking point was the pitch (if you'd played a drinking game where you'd took a shot every time they mentioned that on commentary you'd still be in a coma now) but I was quietly impressed with both teams considering I have them pegged as "bottom three" sides.
Wakefield looked sharp in patches, which was all the more surprising given their huge efforts in reshaping the teams. That my old mate Tim Smith got man of the match, however, seemed more down to the fact that very few other players really shined and he at least set up one try and scored another. I thought he was fairly anonymous for the first hour or so.
Widnes had a good first half, but faded badly. Perhaps if they'd taken some chances first up they may have had enough to hang on but it just wasn't to be. If they can get their fitness sorted and get used to the Super League pace they will pick up some wins but I'd be very surprised if they became serious challengers for the play-offs.
Salford Vs Castleford
You'd like to think the weather contributed to the rather average crowd but I just worry that Season Ticket holders and people who bought tickets but couldn't face the weather would normally be included in announced crowd figures. If so, there's not much of a base for Salford (even allowing for the fact that I wouldn't want to be travelling from Yorkshire to Salford in these conditions and so the away support may have been down on what you would expect) to work on which is worrying considering the tales of just what average crowd they need to break even...
As for the team, they tried and had moments of great class. Matty Smith's try was a good move and their consolation try at the end was arguably the best try of the match. Losing Wayne Godwin so early was a blow and the weather was atrocious so I wouldn't write them off completely just yet but you'd still have to think it will be a long season ahead of them and whether they can avoid the wooden spoon might be dependent on winning on nights like this.
Castleford, for all their bluster last season, didn't finish in the top 8 and even with Agent Millward in charge I'd be surprised if they do this season. But wins like this are just what they need if they are going to have any chance of doing so. You just worry their squad is a bit thin and light on experience. On another note, I presume that much like last year's "if Wigan win, give the MotM to Sam Tomkins" scenario we must be facing a "if Cas win give the MotM to Rangi Chase" directive this season. I'd have gone for Danny Orr, a much underrated player in my view who is the controlling influence in that team and did much to guide them in this match.
I had both away teams for wins on the coupon, so these went pretty much as I expected. It's clear though that with a little more clinical execution both Widnes and Salford could have come away with something more. It's a lesson they'll have to learn quickly.
Widnes Vs Wakefield
It seems like the main talking point was the pitch (if you'd played a drinking game where you'd took a shot every time they mentioned that on commentary you'd still be in a coma now) but I was quietly impressed with both teams considering I have them pegged as "bottom three" sides.
Wakefield looked sharp in patches, which was all the more surprising given their huge efforts in reshaping the teams. That my old mate Tim Smith got man of the match, however, seemed more down to the fact that very few other players really shined and he at least set up one try and scored another. I thought he was fairly anonymous for the first hour or so.
Widnes had a good first half, but faded badly. Perhaps if they'd taken some chances first up they may have had enough to hang on but it just wasn't to be. If they can get their fitness sorted and get used to the Super League pace they will pick up some wins but I'd be very surprised if they became serious challengers for the play-offs.
Salford Vs Castleford
You'd like to think the weather contributed to the rather average crowd but I just worry that Season Ticket holders and people who bought tickets but couldn't face the weather would normally be included in announced crowd figures. If so, there's not much of a base for Salford (even allowing for the fact that I wouldn't want to be travelling from Yorkshire to Salford in these conditions and so the away support may have been down on what you would expect) to work on which is worrying considering the tales of just what average crowd they need to break even...
As for the team, they tried and had moments of great class. Matty Smith's try was a good move and their consolation try at the end was arguably the best try of the match. Losing Wayne Godwin so early was a blow and the weather was atrocious so I wouldn't write them off completely just yet but you'd still have to think it will be a long season ahead of them and whether they can avoid the wooden spoon might be dependent on winning on nights like this.
Castleford, for all their bluster last season, didn't finish in the top 8 and even with Agent Millward in charge I'd be surprised if they do this season. But wins like this are just what they need if they are going to have any chance of doing so. You just worry their squad is a bit thin and light on experience. On another note, I presume that much like last year's "if Wigan win, give the MotM to Sam Tomkins" scenario we must be facing a "if Cas win give the MotM to Rangi Chase" directive this season. I'd have gone for Danny Orr, a much underrated player in my view who is the controlling influence in that team and did much to guide them in this match.
I had both away teams for wins on the coupon, so these went pretty much as I expected. It's clear though that with a little more clinical execution both Widnes and Salford could have come away with something more. It's a lesson they'll have to learn quickly.
Thursday 2 February 2012
SUPER LEAGUE WEEK ONE
Week One bets - All odds William Hills
FRIDAY
Leeds Vs Hull KR - LEEDS (-10 @ 10/11)
Widnes Vs Wakefield - WAKEFIELD (+2 @ 10/11)
SATURDAY
London Vs St Helens - LONDON (+12 @ 10/11)
Salford Vs Castleford - CASTLEFORD (+2 @ 10/11)
SUNDAY
Bradford Vs Catalans - CATALANS (+2 @ 10/11)
Hull FC Vs Warrington - WARRINGTON (-8 @ 10/11)
Wigan Vs Huddersfield - HUDDERSFIELD (+12 @ Evens)
I've taken a sevenfold bet only, so all seven need to come in to start any profit. The approxmate odds on this are 96/1. And I've put a £1 on. Yeah, I know, big gambler. But there you go...
FRIDAY
Leeds Vs Hull KR - LEEDS (-10 @ 10/11)
Widnes Vs Wakefield - WAKEFIELD (+2 @ 10/11)
SATURDAY
London Vs St Helens - LONDON (+12 @ 10/11)
Salford Vs Castleford - CASTLEFORD (+2 @ 10/11)
SUNDAY
Bradford Vs Catalans - CATALANS (+2 @ 10/11)
Hull FC Vs Warrington - WARRINGTON (-8 @ 10/11)
Wigan Vs Huddersfield - HUDDERSFIELD (+12 @ Evens)
I've taken a sevenfold bet only, so all seven need to come in to start any profit. The approxmate odds on this are 96/1. And I've put a £1 on. Yeah, I know, big gambler. But there you go...
Wednesday 1 February 2012
Random Season Long Bets
Ok, so William Hills kindly offered me a free bet on any Super League market if I bet money on ANY sporting event. So I threw away £5 on the Superbowl Result (Giants by 13-18 I think - but any none Rugby League bets will not be mentioned on here unless I win big on them!) and then placed some small, but potentially lucrative bets on various things. Here are those bets;
SUPER LEAGUE MAN OF STEEL:
Sean O'Loughlin @ 16/1
Scott Dureau @ 33/1
Trent Waterhouse @ 50/1]
Joe Westerman @ 66/1
O'Loughlin and Dureau are possibilities in my mind. Waterhouse was a random, and Westerman was because for some reason I had him down last year and I don't want him to win it this year when I've not put any money on him.
SUPER LEAGUE TOP TRY SCORER:
Josh Charnley @ 12/1
Total "Wigan Tinted Glasses" bet.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR MEDAL:
Logan Tomkins @ 33/1
Again, worth a punt from a Wigan point of view.
SUPER LEAGUE MAN OF STEEL:
Sean O'Loughlin @ 16/1
Scott Dureau @ 33/1
Trent Waterhouse @ 50/1]
Joe Westerman @ 66/1
O'Loughlin and Dureau are possibilities in my mind. Waterhouse was a random, and Westerman was because for some reason I had him down last year and I don't want him to win it this year when I've not put any money on him.
SUPER LEAGUE TOP TRY SCORER:
Josh Charnley @ 12/1
Total "Wigan Tinted Glasses" bet.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR MEDAL:
Logan Tomkins @ 33/1
Again, worth a punt from a Wigan point of view.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)